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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Mumbai

It seems appropriate that the last place that I visited this summer was Mumbai, the biggest city/mass of humanity on the planet.

Mumbai was known as Bombay until the Indian naming movement around 5 years ago led to name changes across the country (Madras became Chennai, Calcutta became Kolkata, etc.) And its "vibrant community" of 19 million people encapsulates everything I have seen in India in one swarming mob.


Over 60% of the city lives in slums that are among the worst in the world. Heading in to town you can see countless children picking through awful smelling fields of garbage, trying to find scraps of food. Mobsters control huge swathes of the city, and many are elected into local government to protect their territories. Hindus and Muslims live side-by-side, despite numerous targeted bombings and religious riots over the last 15 years. Many people live literally on the sidewalk, and carving out a space to sleep at night on the sidewalk is a huge battle.


At the same time, Mumbai is home to the dabbawalla (the lunch deliverer), 5-star fusion restaurants, and South Asia's most expensive real estate. It was also the largest British stronghold during their occupation of India and remains home to Victoria Terminus, the Gateway to India arch, and countless Victorian buildings and roundabouts.

Mumbai is also the biggest commuter city in the world, with millions of people commuting from suburbs and villages 2-3 hours each way literally hanging off the sides of Mumbai's commuter trains. So naturally I started my stay here by taking one of these famous trains. The guidebook generally advises against this, and I was the only white person at the station or on the train. But it has been important to me throughout the summer to see how "real people" live day-to-day, so I was definitely going to take the train.


After I landed, I took a rickshaw from the airport to the nearest train station, though the confused driver asked me three times to make sure that was really where I wanted to go. My stay at the station started with a 45 minute wait to buy a ticket, under a corrugated tin hangar with about 2,000 people in 6 different "lines" and 7 slowly moving electric fans. Finally, I fought my way to the front, shoved my money at the ticket counter, and got a ticket to Victoria Terminus. Then, it took me about 15 minutes to find platform 6, which was conveniently placed down a side path from platform 1 instead of being next to platform 5. Since I missed my train, I had to wait about 25 minutes for the next one. Finally, I boarded my "first class" carriage. Even the first class car was the worst train car I have ever been on, by far. A few fans sat idle on the ceiling, despite the midday heat, and people stood side by side all the way to the few who were hanging literally out the "door" (which obviously does not close) as we rattled slowly into town. After the huge line, my ticket was never checked.


South Mumbai was a pleasant surprise however. Mumbai is a long skinny peninsula, so near the south tip it's possible to walk from one side (the bay) across the peninsula to the Arabian Sea side, and there are fairly pretty walks down both sides of the shore. The whole downtown area was very enjoyable to walk around, with lots of very nice buildings (for India), relatively quaint streets, a huge cricket green/park in the middle of town, a really nice University with lots of Victorian buildings, lots of cool shops and cafes, and a really fun and enjoyable vibe. Maybe India has just grown on me, but even the pushy street vendors seemed a little bit friendly. I walked all around, took photos, had some coffee and ice cream, ate some North Indian food, and all-in-all had a great time.

After leaving Bangalore, I had no real intention of returning to India unless I was re-incarnated on the sub-continent. But, after today in Mumbai, maybe I should say "never say never".

Monday, August 27, 2007

Hyderabad

For my last weekend in India, I went to Hyderabad to visit some friends from Stanford and to see the city. Hyderabad is about 350 miles northeast of Bangalore, in Andara Pradesh state. It's known locally as "Cyberabad" and by many accounts has taken the mantle of India's Silicon Valley from Bangalore. Bangalore and Hyderabad are similar in many ways, so I will describe Hyderabad mostly in contrast to Bangalore.

Hyderabad was actually one of the nicer cities that I have been to in India. It was pretty similar to Bangalore in appearance, but a little nicer and better organized. The downtown was more substantial than Bangalore. There were many nice looking shops and a few nice looking parks. The roads were fairly well paved. Traffic was terrible, but did not seem quite as bad as Bangalore.

A quick history note. Bangalore is basically a British town. It was just a small village when the British came in the mid-1800s and used it as a hub to monitor south central India. Hyderabad on the other hand was ruled by a strong maharajah. It was one of the few regions of India to never be ruled by the British, and it only joined with the rest of the country some time after Indian independence. As a result, Hyderabad has an interesting culture and unique feel to it where Bangalore largely does not. This NYT article describes the rocks that give Hyderabad some of its character. Perhaps another sign of Hyderabad's position versus Bangalore - I have 5 Stanford classmates who are working in Hyderabad this summer while I am the only one in Bangalore now.

But, Hyderabad's heavy Stanford presence made this weekend a good opportunity to catch up with some friends from school. On Saturday, my friends Jim and Anu picked me up at the airport for a day of sightseeing. We saw the Chaminar (a 16th century monument to the ending of a plague), the Mecca Mosque (a big mosque whose arch contains soil from Mecca), and ate some great biryani (like Indian paella). We also went to the big Fort which overlooks the town, which was pretty cool. Unfortunately at the fort the South Indian monsoon brought the noise. We got completely soaked, and eventually opted to cut our fort visit short. We headed home and skipped viewing Hyderabad's famous Buddha Statue (which sits on a pedestal in the lake in the center of town).

It turned out that the rain was fortunate, as Saturday evening tragedy stuck Hyderabad. Two bombs exploded Saturday night in the city, one at the park by the Buddha Statue, and one at a local restaurant. Over 40 people were killed and dozens more were injured. 19 other bombs were found unexploded around Hyderabad Saturday night and Sunday, as security was stepped up.

Hyderabad's population is about a 50/50 Hindu/Muslim mix, which makes its Muslim population much higher than most Indian cities. It is not clear if this is why Hyderabad was targeted, if it was targeted because of its growing high-tech presence, or even who was behind the attacks. The local government immediately pointed to Pakistan or Bangladeshi terror groups, but it is not clear whether there is any evidence to justify that connection.

I heard of the bombings on Saturday evening at dinner with Jim and Anu. Jim works for Google, and one of his coworkers called him to let us know and to tell us to come back to Google's campus. We finished dinner pretty quickly and headed home. I stayed there with Jim and another GSB guy, Stephen, who was out of town until late Sunday night. Sunday, Google did not allow us to go into town, which was probably wise. Instead, we stayed around Google's campus in Hi-Tec City (Google employees here have an awesome setup incidentally, with unlimited food and drink, access to 24 hr car service, a nice gym, etc), went to the nearby Novotel hotel for a great Sunday brunch with another classmate Ohad and his wife, and crashed the Novotel pool. A bit of a surreal day, spent mostly trying to relax and settle back into a normal life.

The bombings really brought home India's terrorism problem, of which I had largely been blissfully ignorant. I now at least understand why the airports and public buildings have such extensive (if amazingly poorly implemented) security measures. Since 2004, India has had more deaths from terrorism than all of North America, South America, Europe, and Eurasia COMBINED. Over 3,674 people have died over the past 3 years and 3 months, making India the country with the 2nd most terrorist deaths (less than Iraq but more than Afghanistan).

All in all, I still have a favorable impression of Hyderabad as an Indian city. If I were ever to be forced to return to India for work, I would likely prefer Hyderabad to Bangalore. But I am sure it will forever be connected in my mind with the dark cloud of terror.

Friday, August 24, 2007

India vs. China

This summer I have had the amazing opportunity to work back-to-back in the world's two fastest growing economies. Here are some comparisons and observations.

Facts and Figures:
  • China is the world's biggest country with ~1.32 billion people. India is the world's second biggest country with ~1.10 billion people.
  • China is almost exactly the same size as the US in land area. India is about 1/3 of the size of the US in land area.
  • China's 2006 GDP was $2,720B, which is $2,069 per capita. India's 2006 GDP was $923B, which is $842 per capita.
  • On a purchasing power basis, China's GDP is $7,539 per capita. On a purchasing power basis, India's GDP is $3,920 per capita.
  • China's five year GDP growth rate has been 10.1%. India's five year GDP growth rate has been 7.8%.
  • China's economy is the 4th largest in the world on a nominal US dollar basis but 2nd on a purchasing power basis. India's economy is the 12th largest in the world on a nominal US dollar basis but 3rd on a purchasing power basis.
  • 21% of Chinese exports go to the US. 17% of Indian exports go to the US.
  • ~350 million Indians speak English (more English speakers than any other country). Estimates of Chinese English speakers range from 50-275 million. (Though in practice, I have had no trouble getting by in English in India but in China it was often impossible)
Impressions:
It's hard not to think that China is going to take over the world when walking around Shanghai. The economic growth and energy is palpable. In India, however, walking around any city you definitely do NOT get that impression. Poverty is everywhere, and the palpable feeling is that of walking around an "emerging" economy.

It seems quite true that China has grown because of its government and India has grown in spite of its.

The Indian government cannot handle the simplest issue. Being a democracy with so many diverse viewpoints effectively paralyzes the government. It is true that India makes fewer mistakes as a result, but it is a clear economic disadvantage. The Chinese government on the other hand, is not at all afraid of crushing a few (or few million) individuals or individual liberties in the name of progress. I am nobody to judge which approach is better, but they could not be more different.

What will happen next?
Currently, both countries face a number of similar and significant challenges.

Both countries are trying to move beyond their core strengths (and into the other's territory). India is expanding its manufacturing capabilities - for example, Dell and Nokia have recently opened large plants here. China is also trying to capture more of the IT market. It's IT revenues are currently about 40% of the size of India's. But China's IT market grew at 22% a year and with greater English adoption may grow even faster. Currently, 80% of India's technology exports go to the US or UK. 60% of China's go to Japan or Korea. Both are trying to become more balanced.

Both countries have major political risks that are discounted in the west. India has both Kashmir and the Northeast Provinces with large separatist movements. In addition to Taiwan, China faces problems in Tibet and Southern China, which is increasingly overrun with crime. Both countries face uprisings and riots from farmers on a daily basis. Both have major issues with water and energy shortages and pollution problems (all probably worse in China).

Both countries also face major economic risks. Japan and the other "Asian Tigers" all had significant depressions after growing for approximately as long as China and India in the most recent expansion. China's stockmarket has also gotten to extremely high valuations which are bound to come down in the near-term.

Both also will face major challenges as currency appreciation hurts their cost competitiveness. The rupee has risen nearly 15% this year vs. the dollar. Economists estimate that the yuan is between 10 and 50% undervalued because it is not allowed to freely float.

And both face competition from other emerging Asian economies. The NYT has recently written about the Japan/India partnership that is emerging to combat China. And many global companies and venture capital firms are looking to Vietnam, the Philippines, and elsewhere to provide the next source for cheap labor.

Still though, I think both countries are largely poised for a strong future and while it may not be a smooth ride, I think they will overcome these hurdles. China, particularly, has already become so large and economically powerful that it's rising consumer class should help it continue to grow even if its exports begin to suffer.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, I think over the next 10-15 years the US will grow at 3-5%, India will probably grow at 5-7%, and China will probably grow at 7-9%. But I think India' growth should be pretty stable, barring a major war. I think China's growth faces some significant risks and volatility in the near-term. As a result, I don't think China will catch up to the US as quickly as some people have projected (this recent NYT article seems to agree).

Which would I choose?
If I had to choose to be a farmer in either country, I would probably choose China (though it would be very close, I'd probably be slightly richer and more educated in China but would have less freedom).

If I were to be Me but born in one of the countries, I would definitely choose China because of the huge potential for great wealth (even though I would probably have to live with a permanent face mask to survive the pollution).

Still though, if I could choose to be born anywhere, while it may change in 50 years, today I would almost certainly still pick the US. Hmmm...or maybe Sydney.

Last Day of Work

Today is my last day of work for the summer!

Over the next week, I have an appropriately complicated journey home. I will be traveling Bangalore-Hyderabad-Mumbai-Brussels-New York-Philadelphia-Atlanta. I wonder if anyone has ever visited those seven cities in a week before.

I will still write a few more posts in the next week or so, but for now, here are 8 (the luckiest number in China) end-of-summer takeaways on varying subjects and of varying levels of seriousness:
  • Both China and India are much more economically, politically, socially, and culturally diverse than I ever imagined
  • China (well, Shanghai at least) was much easier to work in than I thought. India was harder than expected. I expected working in India to be easy and working in China to be difficult
  • China's middle class is already bigger than I expected. India's is much smaller than I expected
  • China's pollution is not a future problem, it is a problem today. And it is a big problem
  • "Real" Indian food is quite good. "Real" Chinese food is hit or miss. Neither even resemble American-Chinese or American-Indian food
  • I could live in Shanghai (or Hong Kong, though I would not particularly want to) if I needed to for a few years. I don't know that there is anywhere else in India or China I could move for an extended period
  • I think someday I will work for a start-up. I think I would really like to run Business Development for a growing technology company. In the meantime, I think I am likely to return to investing directly after school. VC investing though is too early stage for me. I prefer working with companies that are real today rather than just future plans
  • It may not always be easy to communicate with people in China and India, but they are invariably extremely generous hosts and great friends

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Today's Top Stories

I make a point to read the Times of India every morning. Almost every day there are some priceless gems that come out of the Indian news. Here are today’s top 5 stories as chosen by me.

5. A group of dabbawallas in Mumbai just received the Six Sigma Excellence award from IIT. Dabbawalla loosely translates to “lunch driver”. Basically, this is an organization of men who go around to the homes of office employees who live too far from work to come home from lunch. They pick up lunches that were home cooked and transport them by bicycle to people’s offices. People can then have fresh hot lunches prepared by their loving wives. Mumbai's 5,000 dabbawallas deliver move than 200,000 meals per day and have an error rate of around 1 in 6 million! This is even more impressive when you consider that few of the wallas can read, so they use a system of colored ribbons and easy to memorize letter combinations to find their destinations. The New York Times also recently profiled these dabbawallas.

4. Page 2 of the Bangalore section details where the power outages will be in the next few days. Today, from noon to 2pm, almost all neighborhoods that I recognized would be without power. From Friday to Monday, an even bigger list of neighborhoods was told to expect “intermittent power”.

3. The Sanjay Dutt saga continues. Sanjay has been in jail for just over 3 weeks. Indian law states that convicted criminals must be furnished with a written copy of the judgment against them so they can read the verdict and determine whether they should appeal. In the Sanjay Dutt case, this judgment is expected to be quite long, around 600 pages. Due to the length of the judgment and the backlog in the justice system, they expect that it will take 2 months before a copy of the judgment can be given to Sanjay. Since they do not have a copy of the judgment and therefore can not properly consider his appeal, his defense team applied for bail. Bail has been granted, so Sanjay will go free until the court can give him a written copy of his verdict. But, since the bail processing paperwork takes some time, he remains in jail. His bail was approved on Monday but he will probably not be actually freed until Friday. He will have to return to jail as soon as he receives his copy of the verdict. Can you imagine if this happened in the Michael Vick case!?

2. There was a long article about the “reverse brain drain” that the US is facing. It is becoming more and more difficult for professionals to get visas to work in the US. At the same time, India and China are becoming more attractive places to live and work. Many smart and talented immigrant Americans that in the past would have gotten visas in the US are returning home. Over the past ten years, 1 in 4 new businesses was stated by an immigrant entrepreneur. Chinese or Indian visa holders filed over 40% of new patents in the US in the last 10 years. And, as the US is making it harder for smart scientists and engineers to stay in the states, we are not just hurting our businesses but we are helping start competitors in China, India, and elsewhere.

1. A Member of Parliament introduced a new bill yesterday that would require married male Indians to bring with them a signed permission slip from their wife to travel outside India. To pass through immigration, an Indian married man would have to show his passport, any needed visas, and this signed permission slip. This is intended to cut down on Indian men leaving the country to travel on business and not returning, leaving their wives and families estranged. The Times did not opine on whether the bill would pass.

Impressions of Venture Capital

During my time here at Softbank, I have gotten to work on a few pretty cool deals. I have looked at a company that sells POS and ERP software to retailers here in India. I have worked on a start-up that is looking to sell financial services to India's middle class consumers. I have also looked into the online search market here in India. It has all been pretty interesting.

Here are a few of my impressions, both of VC generally and in India specifically:

Venture Capital firms generally look at a very small business and provide capital to hopefully make a very large business 3-7 years later. In the US, the major considerations are market risk (how big will this market be in 5 years), competitive risk (what other firms can capture substantial share of this market), and management risk (is this a team that can successfully build this business). There are also financial/valuation considerations, though this is substantially less important in venture investments than later stage investments.

In India, however, there are two major complications. First, the market risk is much bigger, because almost all markets are very small today, and any investment needs huge market growth to succeed. Secondly, the emerging economy risk is very significant also. This involves government decisions largely out of control of the firm, macroeconomic risks, and political risks that are largely non-existant in the US.

As a result, Indian Venture Capital is still a tiny industry. There are only 6-8 funds who are doing early stage venture deals in India. There are more private equity firms providing growth capital to larger companies, but really very few providing true venture money to emerging businesses or entrepreneurs.

The companies that VC's look at in India are also incredibly small. This is probably true in the US as well, but lots of the companies that we look at have 0-$100K in annual revenues. But in India, you can still have a mid-sized workforce at this size.

There are also a lot of foreign investors who don't really understand the Indian market but who will pay any price to enter. For example, the third largest coffee chain in India just sold for US$120MM to an Italian chain. They have about 30 stores, so the chain paid about$2.5MM per site, an amazing price for a small chain of Indian coffee shops. (For comparison, Starbucks which is obviously a substantially bigger brand trades for $1.7M per site). Lastly, a few other VC's I have talked to here tell stories of how many entrepreneurs just "add a zero" at the end of their actual cash flow projections so that the VC's who want to invest meaningful dollar amounts by US standards will talk to them.

While working as a VC has been interesting, my three biggest complaints about the venture business are:

Much of the VC business is just networking. Tons of time is spent going to conferences, trying to meet entrepreneurs, and trying to find experts who know what the next big thing is. I don't think I am a bad networker, but it's not my favorite thing.

VC investing is often a herd mentality play. This is sometimes well justified, as any fund who did not get into google underperformed the last VC bull market. But mostly, it just plays out as everyone is looking for the next big social networking site, everyone is looking for the next big mobile media company, but everyone is really just doing the same thing without really knowing what's going to work.

I think VC economics are not that compelling. From a fund standpoint, with the exception of the few top VC funds whose brand names give them real proprietary deal flow, VC funds generally underperform the general market. They also do not scale. VC funds simply cannot make enough seed investments to deploy a few billion dollars of capital like LBO funds can. As such, funds stay small and carry is small.

All that said, there are a lot of things that are very cool about being a VC. You get to spend a lot of time trying to figure out how new markets are going to emerge and how you can invest capital to affect and capture a share of that growth. You also get to meet a lot of smart and interesting entrepreneurs with cool ideas for new businesses. But I'm still just not sure it's my number 1 career choice.

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Traffic

In Bangalore it is basically impossible to average more than 10 mph on the roads. It takes me 30-45 minutes to go the 3 miles from work to home. Or, if I want to go to the main shopping/business district, it takes at least 45 minutes to go 2 miles, even on the weekends.

I will admit that traffic is a problem many places in the world (Atlanta is a world-class traffic city for sure) but I think Bangalore traffic is exceptional for a few reasons.

The crowding
I almost always get around in an auto-rickshaw (an "auto"). Autos are open air on the sides, which is not unpleasant when the auto is moving, but when sitting in traffic is less ideal. It is also a little unsettling that I can almost always stretch out both my arms and touch a person (even inside their vehicle) on each side of me. My auto will brush up against at least one other person's auto or bike almost every time I go anywhere. Here, you aren't just in traffic in your air-conditioned car, you can actually feel the traffic all around you.

The noise
There are relatively few 4-wheelers (known outside India as cars) here. The traffic is a mishmash of bikes, motorbikes, rickshaws, horse and carts, animals, pedestrians, and cars. Lanes do not matter. Even the center lane rarely matters, as big trucks will often take over a lane from oncoming traffic and a herd of other vehicles will follow along beside. Since lanes don't matter, and since many vehicles do not have rear-view mirrors, whenever one vehicle approaches another, they honk to let them know they are coming. In traffic, this means that there is almost constant honking. Loud, cacophonous honking. The noise is inescapable, even at home or in my office I hear a background of continuous honking. I am sure that I will return from India partially deaf.

The disorganization
Few intersections have lights. I can only think of 3 in Bangalore but there must be more. Those that do have lights also have counters where they count down the time until you get a green light. These counters often start at 180 seconds, which is a long time. Some of the intersections have traffic police, though they are largely ineffective against the over-aggressive drivers. So most intersections people just try to force their way through to wherever they want to go.

The lack of alternatives
Bus service here exists but buses are extremely overcrowded and do not ever seem to go in a direction that can help me. There has been talk of a subway being built, but it has been in the works for five years and is still probably 10 years away. Northeast of the city there are some looming concrete pillars that stand idle, waiting for more of the subway to be built.

The roads
The roads are terrible. Potholes are everywhere. Roads have random bumps, gravel patches, and massive puddles. They make for a bumpy ride.

The danger
I checked the paper this morning and 5 people died in traffic accidents in Bangalore yesterday (including one whose car had "turtled" in an intersection, whatever that means). In Delhi, there are three major bus lines. The Blueline is known as the worst, and a bus on average runs over and kills someone every other day. I am sure many more accidents go unreported.

The smells

Many streets, including mine, have open air sewers lining them. People often stop to use the bathroom in these sewers. Sitting still can be quite pungent. So when a big truck rattles by inches away and spews diesel exhaust all over you, it sometimes improves the smell.

And the best part, when it rains, you are soaking wet and sitting in traffic.

Saturday, August 18, 2007

How flat is the world really?

To start, two animal updates.

First, I can't believe I forgot to mention this but on the drive from Cochin to the Snake Boat Race in Kerala, we passed 5 elephants on the "highway". First, one elephant alone. Then a group of 3. Then a final lone elephant.

Second, the big news in the paper yesterday was that a leopard had come out of the forest in the Bangalore suburb of Hosur and had gotten into the big shopping mall there. It terrorized crowds of people and injured 8 people before being tranquilized and returned to the forest.

Friday I went on a tour of Infosys's campus. Profiled in The World is Flat (the new version of which also starts with a big section on Georgia Tech), Infosys is the largest technology consulting/outsourcing firm in India. Infosys had its first high profile success implementing solutions to Y2K. Now, it is a large technology consulting conglomorate. Much of their work is quite similar to the work I did at PwC implementing SAP at Delta.

Infosys has just over 70,000 employees, about 3/4 of which are in India. They have three massive campuses in India (Bangalore, Mysore, Pune) and a number of smaller locations. The Bangalore campus is the 2nd biggest and is often described as a Corporate Disneyland. There are 18,000 workers spread around a massive enclosed area that looks like a college campus. People take golf carts and ride bicycles around campus. There are five huge food courts, a number of putting and chipping greens, volleyball courts, basketball courts, and several gyms. There is also a huge modern conference room with the largest flat screen tv in Asia. And since Indian infrastructure is so unreliable, the campus is completely self sufficient in terms of power, water, waste processing, etc. Finally, the campus has its own 3.5 star hotel with over 300 rooms. All summer interns live on campus in the hotel, and most corporate guests stay there as well.

Infosys is the "most admired company" in India, they get over 1 million job applications per year. They still have a significant turnover problem though, as qualified labor is difficult to find and keep. Their annual turnover rate is in the 15-20% range, which they say is lower than Tata, Wipro, Accenture India and other competitors, but still is quite high on an absolute basis.

It will be interesting to see what happens to Indian firms like Infosys. I am less bullish on outsourcing to India than I was before I arrived here. I don't think the Indian offshoring market is going away, or even that growth will stop, but I think it will grow at closer to 10% rates than 50%.

Talent is becoming more expensive to find and keep, and while software engineers do not make US salaries, they are getting closer. While a Chinese manufacturer may have a ~20-40x cost advantage in its labor force (I am ballpark estiamting hourly 50 cent - $1 Chinese labor vs $20 US labor), these firms have only a 2-3x cost advantage. This cost advantage has also been hit hard by recent appreciation of the rupee. Additionally, Infosys's clients are more and more demanding their consultants come work on site. This neutralizes Infosys's cost advantage. It also hurts the Infosys culture - especially since many of their employees are drawn to Infosys because of the opportunity to work on one of the massive campuses.

Finally, the overall outsourcing market is much smaller than I expected. Most people talk about how India is a "service" economy, and how ~40% of its GDP comes from services. While that is true, "services" largely does not mean services provided to Western countries. The entire Indian Technology (consulting/outsourcing/KPO/BPO) industry is only about US$10B today. By contrast, the US bought $290B worth of goods from China in 2006.

In their most aggressive case, Forrester Research estimates that by 2015 a total of 7.5 million jobs could be sent offshore by all western economies. Even if you assume 100% of those jobs went to India, India's workforce in 2015 will be at least 300 million people (and could be much more). So at most, only 2.5% of Indian jobs could come from the offshoring industry.

While a $10B outsourcing market is not tiny, I am less afraid that my job will be sent to India than I was three months ago. If I had a job, that is.

Friday, August 17, 2007

Kerala - La Casa de Madhu

When I was working in Shanghai, one of my GSB classmates, Bret, was also working there. We hung out a few times, and he introduced me to his coworker Seph. Seph goes to MIT b-school and has been in Bangalore for the past few weeks. A couple weekends ago, one of Seph's classmates, Dave, came to Bangalore for the weekend. So I met Dave, who is working in Trivandrum, the capital of Kerala. Dave's classmate Ashesh is from Cochin, Kerala. Ashesh emailed his cousin, Madhu, to say that Dave and I were going to the Snake Boat Races. And, for some reason, Madhu insisted on organizing our trip to Kerala, driving us around, and playing host for the weekend.

Given our not-exactly-direct connection, I was not entirely sure what to expect. But sure enough, when I got off the airplane Friday night, Madhu was there to pick me up. He was an absolutely amazing host (especially since he had no idea who I was!) He had arranged a hotel for me, so he drove us into town to check in. Then we went out to dinner and to a bar where we hung out until about midnight. Saturday morning he drove us down to the backwaters where we had lunch, met Dave, and headed to the races. After the races, he drove Dave and I back to Cochin where we went out to dinner. Sunday morning, he came and picked us up and drove us around for a full day of sightseeing. We then dropped Dave off at the train station to go home, but my flight was not until 8pm. So we went to Madhu's house, where I met his wife and children. We drove his daughter to her boarding school (about an hour away), before finally he took me to the airport.

In addition to his unbelievably amazing hospitality, Madhu is a really interesting guy. He is 42 years old and has an 11 year old daughter and a 5 year old son. His father started a seafood business which is now and run by Madhu and his brother. His brother runs the operations side, and Madhu runs sales and marketing. This involves extensive travel, particularly to Europe which is apparently a big buyer of Indian shellfish. In the past two decades, he has lived in Spain, Portugal and England, as well as all over India. He speaks Tamil, Hindi, Urdu, Malayam, English, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, and German. We listened to his Shakira cds on the way to the race and joked in Spanish about the Fiesta de los Barcos. What a great guy.

Me and Madhu at the race:
It was awesome getting the chance to spend 20+ hours talking with a knowledgeable local about anything and everything Indian. I learned a lot about Cochin and Kerala, which is a really interesting place.

Some facts and findings:

Cochin is one of the oldest port cities in India, and it was the first burial site of Vasco de Gama. The old town has Portuguese, Dutch, Chinese, and English cultural and architectural influences.

The oldest church and oldest synagogue in India are both in Cochin. A slight majority of Cochin's residents today are Indian Catholics. There are also a few Indian Jewish residents as well. They live in a part of town subtly called "Jew Town," mostly on "Jew Street".

Cochin has the world's only Spice Exchange, where cinnamon, cardamom, pepper, etc are actively bought and sold on the trading floor.

Kerala is known for its seafood, and we had some amazing fish. We had several fish curries, a few different varieties of fried fish, and a great local dish that was like fried anchovies (surprisingly good bar snack).

Locals fish with these Chinese fishing nets that were supposedly introduced by Kublai Khan. The huge nets are operated by four men who raise and lower them with a rock and pulley system. They do not use bait, but the rising tides trap fish in the nets, which are lowered for about 2 hours at a time.
Cochin has the nicest airport in India. It was built by a public/private partnership, and now has international flights to five countries even though Cochin has only 1 million people.

Most men in Kerala wear dress shirts, dhotis, and flip-flops. Dhotis are basically a sheet that is wrapped around your legs like a towel, then tucked in the front. It looks a bit like a big diaper, but is supposedly quite comfortable. I hope this someday becomes acceptable business casual wear in the US.Even though Kerala is a Communist state, Cochin has a new and booming IT industry. Investors from Dubai are in the middle of constructing one of the largest IT parks in India just outside Cochin. Despite the government's best efforts to slow things down, investment is booming and real estate prices are soaring.

Finally, like everywhere in India, cricket is the most popular sport. A local pickup game.

Thursday, August 16, 2007

The Office

Today, two fortune tellers came to the office.

Softbank India is located in a pretty typical office building near Bangalore's main commercial district. Our building is 5 stories tall, and we are on the second floor. The office itself is fairly small - maybe 1,500 square ft - but big enough to comfortably fit the six people that work here.

It is not entirely unusual for people to come into our office selling strange goods and services. The other day, a man came in the front door of the office, and asked if I wanted a shave. Though I was curious to see how this would work at my desk, I declined.

Today's visitors came in, and both looked a little strange. One appeared to be a Sikh with a large red turban. He stood a step behind another gentlemen with bloodshot eyes and western clothes highlighted with a huge Levi's brass belt buckle.

These two men came in the front door, each holding a notebook. They quickly started chanting (in Hindi? Kannada?) and walking around the office. Then, they started staring intensely in people's faces and chanting to them.

Apparently, both men were face readers who, naturally, used people's faces to tell their fortune. The women who sits next to me was told that a bald man would soon be coming to assist her with a financial problem.

The face readers walked around for about five minutes (unfortunately skipping me, the openly staring Westerner) and told some more fortunes. Then, they invited us to their temple down the road for some sort of a ceremony this evening. Then, they turned and left.

Just another day at the office.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Snake boat races

I spent Saturday at the immensely cool annual Nehru Trophy Snake Boat Races in Alappuzha, Kerala.


A little bit like a once-a-year NASCAR race, the Snake Boat race is a big annual party. Keralites from all over the state come to watch the race. And it's quite a spectacle.


Snake boats are really long, really skinny boats that people paddle like canoes. The biggest snake boats carry up to 135 people at a time (about 125 paddlers and 10 people clapping and banging drums to set the pace). Participants spend 4 to 5 months training for the race. Races are about 2 km long, with 4 boats racing at a time in each heat with the winners advancing.


I spent the weekend with my friend Dave from Sloan Business School, his roommate, and my new friend Madhu. Madhu arranged a boat for us to watch the race which was definitely the way to go. Since we were running late we had a bit of adventure and had to take a canoe to get out to our big boat just in time for the race. But we ended up making it without a problem.


People lined all along one side of the lake watching along the shore or in places in basic grandstands. Along the other side of the course, everyone who could get on a boat lined up and watched the races from the water, and generally sang and swam and had a festive time.

Here are a number of photos.

Rowing out to our main boat just in time for the start of the races


Snake boats in actionThe official umpires did nothing but occasionally wave a white flag

The crowd was extremely festive. Actually, the boat next to us tried to start a fight with the next boat and a few people started throwing 2x4s. Nearly a disaster

Sometimes coordinating 135 people doesn't work well. If people get off rhythm, the boat starts to fill with water and ends up sinking. This boat was stuck half under-water for about 15 minutes

The final race was the closest
Finally, the sun went down on a long, tough day of snake boat spectating

Monday, August 13, 2007

Women's role in Indian society

There is probably nobody less qualified to write about women than me. But Indian culture has some interesting and unusual aspects which I will try to briefly describe here.

India in some ways is a quite advanced in terms of women's rights. There is currently a woman president, there was a woman prime minister in the early 1980s, and there have been women in high government jobs throughout the 60 years of Indian independence.

Yet at the same time, everyday interactions between men and women are far different than they are in the West. They are also changing incredibly rapidly and a subject of much tension and debate in India.

I will ignore here the complicated issue of fundamental Islamic women who wear burkhas and do not speak to men, though this group makes up a meaningful portion of society here.

Employment
One of the things that I noticed upon arriving here was that men often work in jobs that would typically be filled by women in many other countries. For example, men typically clean rooms at hotels, do laundry, and perform housekeeping tasks. This was strikingly apparent at my hotel in Jaipur. Everyone who worked at any job inside the hotel was a man. Yet outside, there was some construction being done. This was being done by female workers, who carried bricks on their heads from one area of the hotel to the other.

I have talked with a few people about this issue. They attribute this to a few factors. First, female literacy significant trails male literacy here. This makes it hard for women to do jobs like wait tables. Second, even in most lower-middle class families, most women do not work but instead manage the household and raise the children. Finally, social norms often do not allow women and men to interact entirely freely, as noted above.

Conversation
In my experience, men rarely will address women who are accompanied by other men directly in conversation. At meals with women, the waiter typically addresses them men to see what the women would like. Buses have Ladies Compartments, and there are male and female lines at most ticket booths, security lines, and entrance gates. When Brittany and I went to a travel agent to book our trip in Leh, I needed to walk down the street to get a copy of my passport made. The male travel agent was not comfortable being alone in his store with a female, so he stood outside while I was gone.

Family Life
India has always struggled with run-away population growth. I have written about China's approach to the problem. Being a democracy, it is impossible for India to enforce something like a one-child, one-family policy. But the government has recently announced a new plan to curb population growth. The state has committed to pay R5,000 (US$250) for a "second honeymoon" to any couple who does not have a child in their first two years of marriage. They will pay R7,500 for any couple who does not have a child in their first three years of marriage. Over 85% of married couples have a child in their first two years of marriage, so the government hopes it can reduce the birth rate by encouraging people to wait longer to have children.

There are also massive problems with parents aborting female children (especially in rural areas). While this is somewhat similar to the problem in rural China, the dowry factor here makes the problem even worse.

Customarily in India, single men and women live with their parents until they get married. After marrying, the woman moves in with the man in his parents' house. At marriage, the bride's family pays a large dowry to the family of the groom.

This dowry can be a huge financial commitment for the bride's family, one that takes years of savings. As such, having female children in India is thought of by some as a financial burden. And tragically, as a result the ratio of males/females in rural India is now around 57/43.

The Karantaka government has recently announced a new plan to combat this. They are literally paying families to have female children. Girl children will receive free health insurance until they are 18 and a scholarship to pay for elementary schooling. They also become the beneficiaries of a life insurance policy that the state takes out on their parents. Finally, the parents will receive a lump sum payment of R30,000 when their daughter turns 18.

Finally, I learned a lot from my new friend Madhu this weekend about his family, including how he met his wife. They had a marriage arranged by their parents, as is common in traditional Indian culture. But this process is more complicated than I realized. When Madhu decided that he was ready to get married, his parents sent the details of his life (name, exact date and time of birth, etc) to an astrologer. She then compared those details with those of the women she had in her database, then recommended some matches to Madhu's parents. Madhu's parents then interviewed the parents of the potential matches, and chose one. Madhu met her once and they talked for a few hours. They then got engaged, and were married a few months later. They have been happily married for the past 15 years. And, only 1% of Indian marriages ends in divorce, so maybe there is something to be said for the zodiac!

Friday, August 10, 2007

Weekend plans

Bangalore is not the most happening town. There are some good shops and restaurants. Lots of movie theaters. A few bars that stay open until 11:30. But that's about it.

Last weekend, I had a nice, relaxing weekend. I went out to a couple great restaurants with some MIT business-school guys I have become friends with. We played golf at the "#1 golf course in India". I made a clutch birdie to win two Kingfisher beers (don't worry though, I still had 4 or 5 three-putts). I walked around town some, saw a movie, and did some shopping. But I think I have seen what there is to see in Bangalore.

I decided yesterday that I am going to Kerala for the weekend. This region in the southwest corner of India is known for its "backwaters". This weekend they are having the annual Snake Boat Race and Festival on one of the lakes. My first question, of course, was, "Does a snake boat race involve actual snakes?" Luckily, the answer is no, much like Chinese Dragon Boats do not involve actual dragons. So I decided to go check it out.

I do not know much about the backwaters, Kerala, or snake boats, but I am sure by the end of the weekend I will.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Bollywood

Bollywood is a big deal.

And going to the movies here is quite an event.

In Jaipur, I went to one of the biggest and best theaters in the country. The lobby was amazingly decorated and an attraction in itself. Seats were purchased and assigned ahead of time. There were three tiers - much like going to a theater on Broadway. I bought box seats for R91 (~$2.25), and had a luxury box avoiding some of the chaos. Even though this theater only had one screen, it probably held 2,500 people. Here is a photo of the lobby.


The movie we saw was called Partner. Not uncommon for Bollywood films, it was based on an American film - in this cash Hitch. Same plot, similar jokes, even down to the fact that the main characters worked for a newspaper.

What was different though was the song and dance routines. Every 20 minutes or so, there was a huge song and dance routine, with elaborate costumes and choreography. These routines are quite common, and most movies feature around 8 major song-dance routines. Popular songs often show up on MTV India as videos, taken largely directly from the movies.

And the crowd gets into it. Whenever a star appears on screen, everyone yells. People sing and clap along with the songs. They scream and laugh and talk throughout and are as much of the entertainment as the movie itself.

This NYT article discusses Hollywood's latest efforts to capture some of the Indian cinema pie.

I also saw the Simpsons movie in Bangalore. Another very nice theater, though this was a 10 screen multiplex that could just as easily have been in suburban America (except for the assigned seats and talkative crowd). This theater was much smaller than Jaipur though, maybe since the movie was in english (ticket prices are also higher for english movies).

Finally, the story of Sanjay Dutt, arguably India's biggest movie star is quite amazing and quite current.

India just went through its equivalent of the OJ trial. Sanjay is one of Bollywood's biggest stars. He was arrested after the 1993 Mumbai bombings and charged (along with a few hundred others) with arms trafficking. He spent a year and a half in prison from 1994-95 but was then released on bond while awaiting trial.

His trial just concluded, 14 years later (Indian courts don't move fast). He was found guilty and (quite surprisingly to the public and the Bollywood community) sentenced to six years in prison. The three movies that he is in the middle of filming right now have all been shelved. The "Bollywood fraternity is mourning" (though public reaction seems mixed). But the Sanjay story is definitely all over the news. We know everything from Sanjay's prison sleeping schedule to what type food he is served to the cleanliness of the toilets in his cell block.

Nobody though seems to discuss whether he actually committed a crime. Maybe this was settled long ago, I am not sure. I have asked a few people about it but nobody seemed comfortable talking about it - I think (understandably) the bombings are still a sensitive topic. He is currently appealing to the Supreme Court but will remain in prison at least until it decides whether they will consider his case and allow him out on bail again. I will post further updates as new developments unfold.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

Photo Hunt

I have finally gotten around to uploading a bunch of photos from my travels between Shanghai and Bangalore. Here are some highlights in random order.

Karoake in Shanghai

A taste of America in Hong Kong
Sign in Yunnan
Sign in Macau Lotus temple, Delhi

Me, sad Tibetan woman, Yak

Monastary, near Shangri-La
Ferryman's house, somewhere near Tiger Leaping Gorge
Yak tea with Tibetan monk, Shangri-La
Mountains near Shangri-La
Main Square, Shangri-La
New friends, Shangri-La
Random temple on bike trip, somewhere near Shangri-La
Field of flowers (poppies?), near Shangri-La
Much needed rest, near Shangri-La
Monastary view, near Shangri-La
Tiger Leaping Gorge
Tiger Leaping Gorge
Tiger Leaping Gorge
Tiger Leaping Gorge
Tiger Leaping Gorge
Tso Moriri, Ladakh
View from teahouse, Lijiang
Riverfront cafe, Lijiang
Main square, Macau
Winding mountain roads, Ladakh
Well-decorated truck ("Fruit King"), Ladakh
View from airplane, Leh
Tso Kar, Ladakh
Runaway camel, Rajasthan
Finding some shade, Taj Mahal
Ruins, Jaipur
Fort, overlooking Jaipur
Sunset with Tibetan prayer flags, Ladakh

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Indian airport security

India is often thought of in the US as a great place to outsource business processes. Some of the processes here though are absolutely ridiculous. I will describe the process for boarding a plane, which I have now been through 4 times and am just starting to understand.

First, to enter the airport you have to show your ticket to a military policeman at the airport door. If you only have an e-ticket, you have to go to a little stand that is setup for this purpose outside the airport and print a copy of your itinerary from the internet. Then you can show the guy at the airport door a ticket and enter the airport.

Upon passing the guard at the door, men have to go through a metal detector (#1). Women do not. To go through this metal detector, you do not need to take your bags off, you just walk through it, set off the alarm (luggage almost always has metal), get patted down and move on.

After entering the airport, you walk through the lobby towards the check-in counters. But to get to the check-in counters, you must have all your checked baggage x-rayed. To get your bags x-rayed, you need to put a bag-tag on them. Then you walk through the metal detectors again (#2) - both men and women this time, though there is a separate Ladies Line - get patted down and go to pick up check-in baggage. Check-in bags need to get stamped on the bag-tag by security or they won't be accepted for check-in.

Then you check-in. This process is not particularly unusual, except you need to get bag-tags for carry-on bags.

After checking-in, you need to go through security to get to the gates. To do this, you need
to go through a metal detector (#3), get patted down, and get the bag-tags on the carry-on bags stamped.

Once you find your gates, then you have the check-in baggage identification. All bags that are going to be checked for the flight get piled up by the gate for that flight. Before boarding, you need to go to the pile of bags and point to your bags. Then your boarding pass gets a mark written on it and your bag gets marked.

Here is my backpack with destination Jaipur (JAI) marked in chalk.
Finally, to board the plane, there is a final wanding with a metal detector (#4), a final x-ray of the carry-on bags, and an inspection of the boarding pass markings and the bag-tag stamps on the carry-on bags. If all is successful, you are allowed onto the bus that takes you to the plane.

Why 4 (or 3 for women) metal detector screenings and numerous stamps are needed to board a plane is not clear. I guess labor is cheap and plentiful but not especially trustworthy. Still, most foreign travelers find this process more than a bit confusing.

Some travelers, however, get special exemptions from the security process. Note numbers 17 and 19 below.