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Thursday, December 20, 2007
Different countries are different*
We also went to two really interesting sets of Roman ruins at Jerash and Umm Qais. Both were built around the 3rd century BC. Not only were they huge and largely still intact (desert air good for protection - many of the stone streets still have the wheel indentations from where Roman chariots wore them down still visible) but they also have so much history. An area might have a wall built by the Greeks protecting a Roman fountain that had a Byzantine church built on it that was turned into an Islamic mosque that became an Ottoman fort.
Jordan seems very different than Oman.
First, it is noticeably poorer. Jordan does not have any significant oil, so it is forced to rely on tourism and standard trade and industry to sustain the economy. And tourism has been slow over the last 6 years as the conflict in the middle east has worsened and after there were a few bombings in Amman a few years ago.
Secondly, the refugee situation in Jordan is much more immediately visible. Jordan has ~6 million Jordanian residents. It also has ~2 million Palestinian refugees and ~500k Iraqi refugees. While Jordan is one of only a few Arab countries who recognize Israel, the number of refugees we have met who refer to their home as being in territory occupied by Israel is a little unsettling. The two countries do have generally peaceful relations though.
Third, while both countries have a generally arid landscape, Oman has a large stretch of coastline where most of the people live. Jordan has only a few dozen kilometers of sea access, and most of the population lives inland along the north-south stretch running along the Jordanian Valley down to the Dead Sea, then south along the border with Israel to the coast. The need to secure water and lack of good land for farming are clearly evident.
Jordan, maybe more than any other place I have been, has an incredibly dense past. Jordan was controlled at various times by Mongols, Persians, Egyptians, Greeks, Romans, Babylonians, Byzantines, Jews, Christian crusaders, Islamic caliphates, Ottomans and the British before finally becoming its own kingdom in 1948.
We went to lunch by one of he historical sights in Umm Qais. We had an incredibly beautiful panorama from our table. Not only that, it hammered home how close together everything is. Sitting in Jordan, we could also see the West Bank (Palestinian territory), Israel, the Golon Heights (Israel / Syria dispute), Lebanon, and Syria. Our guide then showed us the border in 1948, the path the Israeli tanks took through Jordan to Syria in the 1967 war, and the current borders. It really hammered home how Israeli/Palestinian conflict is such a common fact of day to day life here. In Dubai and Oman, it felt much more removed, even though those countries do
not even officially recognize Israel as a country. Looking around the intersection of all these countries, you can start to see why...
Actual bullet point on key takeaways slide in global business class at Stanford
Middle East Fashion Update
The clothing choices here are worth noting.
In Dubai and Oman, almost universally, local men wore long white full length robes called dishdashas. In Dubai, men also wore a white headdress held in place by a black rope thing like a crown. In Oman, men also wore a headdress but it was tied a little differently and typically had a multicolor design.
Women in Dubai and Oman wore full length black robes, usually with a burqa covering the face completely.
In Jordan, most people wore western clothes. Many women wore head scarves though and many men wore headdresses. There are 3 primarily headdresses in Jordan - white, black checked, and red checked. We asked one of our tour guides if the colors had any significance. She said that historically white was worn by Arabs from the gulf, or by Jordanian Arabs in the summer due to the heat. The black and white checked was a historically Palestinian design and the red and white checked was a historically Bedouin design.
Today though the colors don't mean as much as all the headdresses are made in China anyway.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Oman - oh, man!
We had an awesome time in Oman, a tiny country of only 3 million people that gets very few American tourists but should get many more. It's an interesting example of a wealthy, friendly, peaceful Middle Eastern country that still has very conservative Islamic values.
In addition to the adventures I highlighted in the other posts, we had a lot of fun in Oman.
Our first day we spent driving up to the Jebel Shams, the highest mountain in Oman at 10,000 ft. It gave us some great views of the Grand Canyon of Oman - much like the Grand Canyon of the US but a little more narrow and with a few more goats and a lot less people. We spent the night in Nizwa, the traditional cultural capital of Oman.
Our second day was spent at a really nice beach resort, snorkeling and then relaxing. Nearby this beach, apparently a large portion of the economy comes from smuggling. Iranian pirates bring goats across the Gulf of Oman in speedboats and trade them for American cigarettes from the Omanis. The Omanis accept this arrangement both because it nets them goats and because (according to the guide book) "piracy is ingrained in the region's cultural heritage and the local people do not want to frown upon the past". I do not know the current goat-cigarette exchange rate though.
Our third day we drove through the desert sand dunes to an Omani beach where we saw nesting sea turtles. This was surprisingly cool. These huge sea turtles swim away as far as India, southern Africa and Australia during the year, but come back to nest in the same beach they were born at in Oman. During the peak season, there can be hundreds of turtles nesting on the beach every night. We saw about a dozen, but it was very cool. Once they got to the beach, they would let you come up and watch them dig a big hole, lay their eggs, and then bury them. Most nights baby turtles hatch and then swim off into the ocean, but we couldn't see any. We did have a guide who was exactly like Borat though. Niiice...
Our last day in Oman we drove along the scenic coastal road back up to Muscat, the capital city. We stopped for an hour and played in a huge limestone hole in the ground called the Demon's Crater. In Muscat, we toured the Sultan's Palace, mosque, and surrounding grounds which were beautiful. We then shopped in a cool market, or souq and got some Omani souvenirs. Finally, we went to a great Indian restaurant on a hill overlooking the city. We topped this all off with an M&M Blizzard from the Dairy Queen by the waterfront near our hotel.
After a week in Oman, I was quite impressed. It was amazing how quickly we got used to sheiks driving around speeding on desert roads in the saloon cars (non 4x4 vehicles, or sedans), the eerie but majestic sound of the call to prayer from the mosques five times a day, or the sight of women in burqas crossing the street as we listened to hip hop music on our ipods in our Hertz rental car. It was also amazing how culturally fascinating, scenic, and extremely friendly Oman and the Omani people were. While it was unbelievably expensive to visit, I still look forward to visiting again some day.
Bedouin sand dune adventure
These huge sand dunes rise up out of an area of otherwise flat and rocky countryside. The wind continuously blows them around so they are always in different shapes. In fact, the Omani border with Saudi Arabia is legally undefined in a large section because the shifting sands make recognizing exact locations difficult (and the area is only occupied by tribal nomads).
We had a great time hiking up and running around the dunes. And, as everyone advised us, just when you think you are in the middle of nowhere in Oman, some Bedouins will find you. And sure enough, a family of 3 kids and a teenager did. While only one of them spoke any English, we were able to learn that his favorite soccer team was Real Madrid which he watched from the satellite dish at his house in the desert.
And we scrambled up and then sprinted and jumped down the dunes with the little kids, which is fun in Arabic, English, or any other language.
Survivor Island Oman
Today we got up bright and early, just after the morning call to prayer, to drive to the beach. We then hopped on a beat up old fishing boat Jason had arranged with a captain and a guide and set out into the Arabian sea.
About a half hour in we arrived at a tiny little island part way between Oman and Iran. Surprisingly the boat just dropped us off with some towels and snorkeling gear and told us they would be back for us in a few hours. While our island was quite beautiful with a white sandy beach surrounded by a brown rocky cliff, being left alone in the middle of nowhere Arabia was a bit unsettling. So we jokingly named our little island adventure Survivor Island Oman.
The snorkeling turned out to be absolutely incredible though. We had beautiful clear blue water and the most colorful coral I've ever seen. Tons of cool fish, a red shark, a few rays, and a pair of cuttlefish (like squid) mating which was incredible. There were also a number of sea turtles swimming around. My favorite, who I nicknamed Tommy the turtle, let me just swim around with him for like 30 minutes. Super cool.
In the end, the boat did come back for us and eventually brought us back to the mainland. We spent the rest of the afternoons and evening at a nice beach resort hanging out by the pool, playing ping pong, and relaxing. For dinner, they brought a grill and food to the patio outside our room and we barbecued some chicken tikka, lamb kebabs and jumbo prawns. A great dinner, but no cuttlefish.
Dubai - Welcome to Middle East Mayhem
I am traveling with three friends from Stanford - two of my roommates, Rob and Jason, and another friend Owen. We spent our first day of the trip in Dubai basically to all meet up from our various flights in and to catch a flight to Oman.
The first thing we did upon arriving in the Middle East was, of course, go to the best water park in the Middle East. The Wild Wadi Waterpark (www.wildwadi.com) was awesome. It featured the pitch-black Tunnel of Doom, the Jumeirah Scairah (at 80 km/h the fastest waterslide outside North America), and several pretty cool water slides called blasters that shot you up the slide before you slid down it. But the best parts were the views of the Arabian Sea and the Burj al-Arab hotel right next door. The sail-shaped Burj is both the signature landmark of Dubai and reputedly the nicest hotel in the world.
Since I am coming back to Dubai for a week later this trip, I will save most of my commentary on Dubai until then.
But here are a few first impressions:
- Despite the occasional English mistranslation or knockoff (like Safestway grocery store, TGI Thursdays restaurant) Dubai was impressively first world.
- Dubai is under incredible construction. 20% of the cranes in the world are currently in Dubai which is even more amazing since there are only just over 1 million Emiratis who live there (and about 3 million expats, largely poor Indian workers and rich Western expats)
- Dubai is incredibly rich. The city just exudes wealth - in fact the biggest contrast I felt with China was that while China just feels like growth, Dubai feels like money
Sunday, December 2, 2007
Winter travel plans
- Dec 11-12 - Dubai (fun)
- Dec 13-17 - Oman (fun)
- Dec 18-26 - Jordan (fun)
- Dec 27-Jan 1 - United Arab Emirates (mix of cultural and work meetings)
- Jan 1-6 - Egypt (mix of cultural and work meetings)
Like this summer, I hope to update this blog regularly. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Summer Ends
I have literally gone around the world in the past 85 days. My haphazard journey (excluding some side trips along the way) was:
- San Francisco-Beijing-Shanghai on Air China
- Shanghai-Kunming-Hong Kong on China Eastern
- Hong Kong-Delhi on Air India
- Delhi-Bangalore on Kingfisher Air
- Bangalore-Mumbai-Brussels-New York on Jet Airways
- New York-Atlanta on Continental
- Atlanta-San Francisco probably by car
I'd like to conclude (or at least to slow down my daily pace of postings for a little while) with this somewhat cheesy analogy that came to me while picking through a pile of counterfeit DVDs: Soaring Dragon, Hidden Tiger.
Before the summer began, I believed that pundits were over-exaggerating the China opportunity and that India was underappreciated as a potential market. I thought it would be an order of magnitude easier to work in India than China. I was also more excited about living in India than China. But after 3 months here, it turns out I was exactly wrong. Despite the language difficulty in China, it was probably as easy to work in China as it was to work in India. I loved living in Shanghai, and Bangalore was barely tolerable. And I think the India opportunity/threat is much smaller than I expected, while the Chinese consumer market is an even bigger opportunity than most people think.
China today really gives visitors the feeling that you are seeing a powerful dragon that has just torn loose from its chains and is taking off. It is a bit of a strange beast, and there is definitely the risk that if you stand in the wrong spot, you can get burned by a breath of fire. But at the same time, it's awe-inspiring and powerful. Just walking around, you can feel the energy in the air. The hope, the new prosperity, the confidence in the future that is gripping China today is nearly tangible. China was the greatest and most advanced civilization in the world for most of the past 2,500 years. While no one thinks it will be the smoothest ride, most Chinese believe they will again have the world's greatest civilization in the near future. After catching its energy, ex-pats are doing whatever they can to get hired or extend their stays in Shanghai. Chinese-Americans are returning home to try to ride the wave of new prosperity. This summer, I just tried to hold on to the dragon and hope for the best on the wild ride.
India, on the other hand, is a tough, tough place. It's theoretically one of the biggest and fastest growing economies, but Indian life remains incredibly hard, even for rich Westerners. In the awesome book Maximum City, Seketu Mehta calls India "The Land of the No". This is so true. I received dozens of answers of "No" or "Not possible" in India every day. Sometimes, you can get a glimpse of the power of the Indian economy, like getting a glimpse of a tiger on a jungle safari. It looks sleek and strong. But it is still hard to see all its features through the dense foliage. Its power remains mostly hidden behind the dangerous jungle. Like a tiger hunter faces threats of attack and disease, living and working in India is full of difficult challenges - from power outages to omnipresent poverty to terror. Most ex-pats here just try to survive their stays - few truly enjoy Indian life. India's market potential is still elusive and hard to capture. Maybe some day the Indian tiger will come out of hiding. But that day looks far away.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Mumbai
Monday, August 27, 2007
Hyderabad
Hyderabad was actually one of the nicer cities that I have been to in India. It was pretty similar to Bangalore in appearance, but a little nicer and better organized. The downtown was more substantial than Bangalore. There were many nice looking shops and a few nice looking parks. The roads were fairly well paved. Traffic was terrible, but did not seem quite as bad as Bangalore.
A quick history note. Bangalore is basically a British town. It was just a small village when the British came in the mid-1800s and used it as a hub to monitor south central India. Hyderabad on the other hand was ruled by a strong maharajah. It was one of the few regions of India to never be ruled by the British, and it only joined with the rest of the country some time after Indian independence. As a result, Hyderabad has an interesting culture and unique feel to it where Bangalore largely does not. This NYT article describes the rocks that give Hyderabad some of its character. Perhaps another sign of Hyderabad's position versus Bangalore - I have 5 Stanford classmates who are working in Hyderabad this summer while I am the only one in Bangalore now.
But, Hyderabad's heavy Stanford presence made this weekend a good opportunity to catch up with some friends from school. On Saturday, my friends Jim and Anu picked me up at the airport for a day of sightseeing. We saw the Chaminar (a 16th century monument to the ending of a plague), the Mecca Mosque (a big mosque whose arch contains soil from Mecca), and ate some great biryani (like Indian paella). We also went to the big Fort which overlooks the town, which was pretty cool. Unfortunately at the fort the South Indian monsoon brought the noise. We got completely soaked, and eventually opted to cut our fort visit short. We headed home and skipped viewing Hyderabad's famous Buddha Statue (which sits on a pedestal in the lake in the center of town).
It turned out that the rain was fortunate, as Saturday evening tragedy stuck Hyderabad. Two bombs exploded Saturday night in the city, one at the park by the Buddha Statue, and one at a local restaurant. Over 40 people were killed and dozens more were injured. 19 other bombs were found unexploded around Hyderabad Saturday night and Sunday, as security was stepped up.
Hyderabad's population is about a 50/50 Hindu/Muslim mix, which makes its Muslim population much higher than most Indian cities. It is not clear if this is why Hyderabad was targeted, if it was targeted because of its growing high-tech presence, or even who was behind the attacks. The local government immediately pointed to Pakistan or Bangladeshi terror groups, but it is not clear whether there is any evidence to justify that connection.
I heard of the bombings on Saturday evening at dinner with Jim and Anu. Jim works for Google, and one of his coworkers called him to let us know and to tell us to come back to Google's campus. We finished dinner pretty quickly and headed home. I stayed there with Jim and another GSB guy, Stephen, who was out of town until late Sunday night. Sunday, Google did not allow us to go into town, which was probably wise. Instead, we stayed around Google's campus in Hi-Tec City (Google employees here have an awesome setup incidentally, with unlimited food and drink, access to 24 hr car service, a nice gym, etc), went to the nearby Novotel hotel for a great Sunday brunch with another classmate Ohad and his wife, and crashed the Novotel pool. A bit of a surreal day, spent mostly trying to relax and settle back into a normal life.
The bombings really brought home India's terrorism problem, of which I had largely been blissfully ignorant. I now at least understand why the airports and public buildings have such extensive (if amazingly poorly implemented) security measures. Since 2004, India has had more deaths from terrorism than all of North America, South America, Europe, and Eurasia COMBINED. Over 3,674 people have died over the past 3 years and 3 months, making India the country with the 2nd most terrorist deaths (less than Iraq but more than Afghanistan).
All in all, I still have a favorable impression of Hyderabad as an Indian city. If I were ever to be forced to return to India for work, I would likely prefer Hyderabad to Bangalore. But I am sure it will forever be connected in my mind with the dark cloud of terror.
Friday, August 24, 2007
India vs. China
Facts and Figures:
- China is the world's biggest country with ~1.32 billion people. India is the world's second biggest country with ~1.10 billion people.
- China is almost exactly the same size as the US in land area. India is about 1/3 of the size of the US in land area.
- China's 2006 GDP was $2,720B, which is $2,069 per capita. India's 2006 GDP was $923B, which is $842 per capita.
- On a purchasing power basis, China's GDP is $7,539 per capita. On a purchasing power basis, India's GDP is $3,920 per capita.
- China's five year GDP growth rate has been 10.1%. India's five year GDP growth rate has been 7.8%.
- China's economy is the 4th largest in the world on a nominal US dollar basis but 2nd on a purchasing power basis. India's economy is the 12th largest in the world on a nominal US dollar basis but 3rd on a purchasing power basis.
- 21% of Chinese exports go to the US. 17% of Indian exports go to the US.
- ~350 million Indians speak English (more English speakers than any other country). Estimates of Chinese English speakers range from 50-275 million. (Though in practice, I have had no trouble getting by in English in India but in China it was often impossible)
It's hard not to think that China is going to take over the world when walking around Shanghai. The economic growth and energy is palpable. In India, however, walking around any city you definitely do NOT get that impression. Poverty is everywhere, and the palpable feeling is that of walking around an "emerging" economy.
It seems quite true that China has grown because of its government and India has grown in spite of its.
The Indian government cannot handle the simplest issue. Being a democracy with so many diverse viewpoints effectively paralyzes the government. It is true that India makes fewer mistakes as a result, but it is a clear economic disadvantage. The Chinese government on the other hand, is not at all afraid of crushing a few (or few million) individuals or individual liberties in the name of progress. I am nobody to judge which approach is better, but they could not be more different.
What will happen next?
Currently, both countries face a number of similar and significant challenges.
Both countries are trying to move beyond their core strengths (and into the other's territory). India is expanding its manufacturing capabilities - for example, Dell and Nokia have recently opened large plants here. China is also trying to capture more of the IT market. It's IT revenues are currently about 40% of the size of India's. But China's IT market grew at 22% a year and with greater English adoption may grow even faster. Currently, 80% of India's technology exports go to the US or UK. 60% of China's go to Japan or Korea. Both are trying to become more balanced.
Both countries have major political risks that are discounted in the west. India has both Kashmir and the Northeast Provinces with large separatist movements. In addition to Taiwan, China faces problems in Tibet and Southern China, which is increasingly overrun with crime. Both countries face uprisings and riots from farmers on a daily basis. Both have major issues with water and energy shortages and pollution problems (all probably worse in China).
Both countries also face major economic risks. Japan and the other "Asian Tigers" all had significant depressions after growing for approximately as long as China and India in the most recent expansion. China's stockmarket has also gotten to extremely high valuations which are bound to come down in the near-term.
Both also will face major challenges as currency appreciation hurts their cost competitiveness. The rupee has risen nearly 15% this year vs. the dollar. Economists estimate that the yuan is between 10 and 50% undervalued because it is not allowed to freely float.
And both face competition from other emerging Asian economies. The NYT has recently written about the Japan/India partnership that is emerging to combat China. And many global companies and venture capital firms are looking to Vietnam, the Philippines, and elsewhere to provide the next source for cheap labor.
Still though, I think both countries are largely poised for a strong future and while it may not be a smooth ride, I think they will overcome these hurdles. China, particularly, has already become so large and economically powerful that it's rising consumer class should help it continue to grow even if its exports begin to suffer.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, I think over the next 10-15 years the US will grow at 3-5%, India will probably grow at 5-7%, and China will probably grow at 7-9%. But I think India' growth should be pretty stable, barring a major war. I think China's growth faces some significant risks and volatility in the near-term. As a result, I don't think China will catch up to the US as quickly as some people have projected (this recent NYT article seems to agree).
Which would I choose?
If I had to choose to be a farmer in either country, I would probably choose China (though it would be very close, I'd probably be slightly richer and more educated in China but would have less freedom).
If I were to be Me but born in one of the countries, I would definitely choose China because of the huge potential for great wealth (even though I would probably have to live with a permanent face mask to survive the pollution).
Still though, if I could choose to be born anywhere, while it may change in 50 years, today I would almost certainly still pick the US. Hmmm...or maybe Sydney.
Last Day of Work
Over the next week, I have an appropriately complicated journey home. I will be traveling Bangalore-Hyderabad-Mumbai-Brussels-New York-Philadelphia-Atlanta. I wonder if anyone has ever visited those seven cities in a week before.
I will still write a few more posts in the next week or so, but for now, here are 8 (the luckiest number in China) end-of-summer takeaways on varying subjects and of varying levels of seriousness:
- Both China and India are much more economically, politically, socially, and culturally diverse than I ever imagined
- China (well, Shanghai at least) was much easier to work in than I thought. India was harder than expected. I expected working in India to be easy and working in China to be difficult
- China's middle class is already bigger than I expected. India's is much smaller than I expected
- China's pollution is not a future problem, it is a problem today. And it is a big problem
- "Real" Indian food is quite good. "Real" Chinese food is hit or miss. Neither even resemble American-Chinese or American-Indian food
- I could live in Shanghai (or Hong Kong, though I would not particularly want to) if I needed to for a few years. I don't know that there is anywhere else in India or China I could move for an extended period
- I think someday I will work for a start-up. I think I would really like to run Business Development for a growing technology company. In the meantime, I think I am likely to return to investing directly after school. VC investing though is too early stage for me. I prefer working with companies that are real today rather than just future plans
- It may not always be easy to communicate with people in China and India, but they are invariably extremely generous hosts and great friends
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Today's Top Stories
5. A group of dabbawallas in Mumbai just received the Six Sigma Excellence award from IIT. Dabbawalla loosely translates to “lunch driver”. Basically, this is an organization of men who go around to the homes of office employees who live too far from work to come home from lunch. They pick up lunches that were home cooked and transport them by bicycle to people’s offices. People can then have fresh hot lunches prepared by their loving wives. Mumbai's 5,000 dabbawallas deliver move than 200,000 meals per day and have an error rate of around 1 in 6 million! This is even more impressive when you consider that few of the wallas can read, so they use a system of colored ribbons and easy to memorize letter combinations to find their destinations. The New York Times also recently profiled these dabbawallas.
4. Page 2 of the Bangalore section details where the power outages will be in the next few days. Today, from noon to 2pm, almost all neighborhoods that I recognized would be without power. From Friday to Monday, an even bigger list of neighborhoods was told to expect “intermittent power”.
3. The Sanjay Dutt saga continues. Sanjay has been in jail for just over 3 weeks. Indian law states that convicted criminals must be furnished with a written copy of the judgment against them so they can read the verdict and determine whether they should appeal. In the Sanjay Dutt case, this judgment is expected to be quite long, around 600 pages. Due to the length of the judgment and the backlog in the justice system, they expect that it will take 2 months before a copy of the judgment can be given to Sanjay. Since they do not have a copy of the judgment and therefore can not properly consider his appeal, his defense team applied for bail. Bail has been granted, so Sanjay will go free until the court can give him a written copy of his verdict. But, since the bail processing paperwork takes some time, he remains in jail. His bail was approved on Monday but he will probably not be actually freed until Friday. He will have to return to jail as soon as he receives his copy of the verdict. Can you imagine if this happened in the Michael Vick case!?
2. There was a long article about the “reverse brain drain” that the US is facing. It is becoming more and more difficult for professionals to get visas to work in the US. At the same time, India and China are becoming more attractive places to live and work. Many smart and talented immigrant Americans that in the past would have gotten visas in the US are returning home. Over the past ten years, 1 in 4 new businesses was stated by an immigrant entrepreneur. Chinese or Indian visa holders filed over 40% of new patents in the US in the last 10 years. And, as the US is making it harder for smart scientists and engineers to stay in the states, we are not just hurting our businesses but we are helping start competitors in China, India, and elsewhere.
1. A Member of Parliament introduced a new bill yesterday that would require married male Indians to bring with them a signed permission slip from their wife to travel outside India. To pass through immigration, an Indian married man would have to show his passport, any needed visas, and this signed permission slip. This is intended to cut down on Indian men leaving the country to travel on business and not returning, leaving their wives and families estranged. The Times did not opine on whether the bill would pass.
Impressions of Venture Capital
Here are a few of my impressions, both of VC generally and in India specifically:
Venture Capital firms generally look at a very small business and provide capital to hopefully make a very large business 3-7 years later. In the US, the major considerations are market risk (how big will this market be in 5 years), competitive risk (what other firms can capture substantial share of this market), and management risk (is this a team that can successfully build this business). There are also financial/valuation considerations, though this is substantially less important in venture investments than later stage investments.
In India, however, there are two major complications. First, the market risk is much bigger, because almost all markets are very small today, and any investment needs huge market growth to succeed. Secondly, the emerging economy risk is very significant also. This involves government decisions largely out of control of the firm, macroeconomic risks, and political risks that are largely non-existant in the US.
As a result, Indian Venture Capital is still a tiny industry. There are only 6-8 funds who are doing early stage venture deals in India. There are more private equity firms providing growth capital to larger companies, but really very few providing true venture money to emerging businesses or entrepreneurs.
The companies that VC's look at in India are also incredibly small. This is probably true in the US as well, but lots of the companies that we look at have 0-$100K in annual revenues. But in India, you can still have a mid-sized workforce at this size.
There are also a lot of foreign investors who don't really understand the Indian market but who will pay any price to enter. For example, the third largest coffee chain in India just sold for US$120MM to an Italian chain. They have about 30 stores, so the chain paid about$2.5MM per site, an amazing price for a small chain of Indian coffee shops. (For comparison, Starbucks which is obviously a substantially bigger brand trades for $1.7M per site). Lastly, a few other VC's I have talked to here tell stories of how many entrepreneurs just "add a zero" at the end of their actual cash flow projections so that the VC's who want to invest meaningful dollar amounts by US standards will talk to them.
While working as a VC has been interesting, my three biggest complaints about the venture business are:
Much of the VC business is just networking. Tons of time is spent going to conferences, trying to meet entrepreneurs, and trying to find experts who know what the next big thing is. I don't think I am a bad networker, but it's not my favorite thing.
VC investing is often a herd mentality play. This is sometimes well justified, as any fund who did not get into google underperformed the last VC bull market. But mostly, it just plays out as everyone is looking for the next big social networking site, everyone is looking for the next big mobile media company, but everyone is really just doing the same thing without really knowing what's going to work.
I think VC economics are not that compelling. From a fund standpoint, with the exception of the few top VC funds whose brand names give them real proprietary deal flow, VC funds generally underperform the general market. They also do not scale. VC funds simply cannot make enough seed investments to deploy a few billion dollars of capital like LBO funds can. As such, funds stay small and carry is small.
All that said, there are a lot of things that are very cool about being a VC. You get to spend a lot of time trying to figure out how new markets are going to emerge and how you can invest capital to affect and capture a share of that growth. You also get to meet a lot of smart and interesting entrepreneurs with cool ideas for new businesses. But I'm still just not sure it's my number 1 career choice.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Traffic
I will admit that traffic is a problem many places in the world (Atlanta is a world-class traffic city for sure) but I think Bangalore traffic is exceptional for a few reasons.
The crowding
I almost always get around in an auto-rickshaw (an "auto"). Autos are open air on the sides, which is not unpleasant when the auto is moving, but when sitting in traffic is less ideal. It is also a little unsettling that I can almost always stretch out both my arms and touch a person (even inside their vehicle) on each side of me. My auto will brush up against at least one other person's auto or bike almost every time I go anywhere. Here, you aren't just in traffic in your air-conditioned car, you can actually feel the traffic all around you.
The noise
There are relatively few 4-wheelers (known outside India as cars) here. The traffic is a mishmash of bikes, motorbikes, rickshaws, horse and carts, animals, pedestrians, and cars. Lanes do not matter. Even the center lane rarely matters, as big trucks will often take over a lane from oncoming traffic and a herd of other vehicles will follow along beside. Since lanes don't matter, and since many vehicles do not have rear-view mirrors, whenever one vehicle approaches another, they honk to let them know they are coming. In traffic, this means that there is almost constant honking. Loud, cacophonous honking. The noise is inescapable, even at home or in my office I hear a background of continuous honking. I am sure that I will return from India partially deaf.
The disorganization
Few intersections have lights. I can only think of 3 in Bangalore but there must be more. Those that do have lights also have counters where they count down the time until you get a green light. These counters often start at 180 seconds, which is a long time. Some of the intersections have traffic police, though they are largely ineffective against the over-aggressive drivers. So most intersections people just try to force their way through to wherever they want to go.
The lack of alternatives
Bus service here exists but buses are extremely overcrowded and do not ever seem to go in a direction that can help me. There has been talk of a subway being built, but it has been in the works for five years and is still probably 10 years away. Northeast of the city there are some looming concrete pillars that stand idle, waiting for more of the subway to be built.
The roads
The roads are terrible. Potholes are everywhere. Roads have random bumps, gravel patches, and massive puddles. They make for a bumpy ride.
The danger
I checked the paper this morning and 5 people died in traffic accidents in Bangalore yesterday (including one whose car had "turtled" in an intersection, whatever that means). In Delhi, there are three major bus lines. The Blueline is known as the worst, and a bus on average runs over and kills someone every other day. I am sure many more accidents go unreported.
The smells
Many streets, including mine, have open air sewers lining them. People often stop to use the bathroom in these sewers. Sitting still can be quite pungent. So when a big truck rattles by inches away and spews diesel exhaust all over you, it sometimes improves the smell.
And the best part, when it rains, you are soaking wet and sitting in traffic.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
How flat is the world really?
First, I can't believe I forgot to mention this but on the drive from Cochin to the Snake Boat Race in Kerala, we passed 5 elephants on the "highway". First, one elephant alone. Then a group of 3. Then a final lone elephant.
Second, the big news in the paper yesterday was that a leopard had come out of the forest in the Bangalore suburb of Hosur and had gotten into the big shopping mall there. It terrorized crowds of people and injured 8 people before being tranquilized and returned to the forest.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Kerala - La Casa de Madhu
Given our not-exactly-direct connection, I was not entirely sure what to expect. But sure enough, when I got off the airplane Friday night, Madhu was there to pick me up. He was an absolutely amazing host (especially since he had no idea who I was!) He had arranged a hotel for me, so he drove us into town to check in. Then we went out to dinner and to a bar where we hung out until about midnight. Saturday morning he drove us down to the backwaters where we had lunch, met Dave, and headed to the races. After the races, he drove Dave and I back to Cochin where we went out to dinner. Sunday morning, he came and picked us up and drove us around for a full day of sightseeing. We then dropped Dave off at the train station to go home, but my flight was not until 8pm. So we went to Madhu's house, where I met his wife and children. We drove his daughter to her boarding school (about an hour away), before finally he took me to the airport.
In addition to his unbelievably amazing hospitality, Madhu is a really interesting guy. He is 42 years old and has an 11 year old daughter and a 5 year old son. His father started a seafood business which is now and run by Madhu and his brother. His brother runs the operations side, and Madhu runs sales and marketing. This involves extensive travel, particularly to Europe which is apparently a big buyer of Indian shellfish. In the past two decades, he has lived in Spain, Portugal and England, as well as all over India. He speaks Tamil, Hindi, Urdu, Malayam, English, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, and German. We listened to his Shakira cds on the way to the race and joked in Spanish about the Fiesta de los Barcos. What a great guy.
Some facts and findings:
Cochin is one of the oldest port cities in India, and it was the first burial site of Vasco de Gama. The old town has Portuguese, Dutch, Chinese, and English cultural and architectural influences.
The oldest church and oldest synagogue in India are both in Cochin. A slight majority of Cochin's residents today are Indian Catholics. There are also a few Indian Jewish residents as well. They live in a part of town subtly called "Jew Town," mostly on "Jew Street".
Cochin has the world's only Spice Exchange, where cinnamon, cardamom, pepper, etc are actively bought and sold on the trading floor.
Kerala is known for its seafood, and we had some amazing fish. We had several fish curries, a few different varieties of fried fish, and a great local dish that was like fried anchovies (surprisingly good bar snack).
Locals fish with these Chinese fishing nets that were supposedly introduced by Kublai Khan. The huge nets are operated by four men who raise and lower them with a rock and pulley system. They do not use bait, but the rising tides trap fish in the nets, which are lowered for about 2 hours at a time.
Cochin has the nicest airport in India. It was built by a public/private partnership, and now has international flights to five countries even though Cochin has only 1 million people.
Most men in Kerala wear dress shirts, dhotis, and flip-flops. Dhotis are basically a sheet that is wrapped around your legs like a towel, then tucked in the front. It looks a bit like a big diaper, but is supposedly quite comfortable. I hope this someday becomes acceptable business casual wear in the US.Even though Kerala is a Communist state, Cochin has a new and booming IT industry. Investors from Dubai are in the middle of constructing one of the largest IT parks in India just outside Cochin. Despite the government's best efforts to slow things down, investment is booming and real estate prices are soaring.
Finally, like everywhere in India, cricket is the most popular sport. A local pickup game.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
The Office
Softbank India is located in a pretty typical office building near Bangalore's main commercial district. Our building is 5 stories tall, and we are on the second floor. The office itself is fairly small - maybe 1,500 square ft - but big enough to comfortably fit the six people that work here.
It is not entirely unusual for people to come into our office selling strange goods and services. The other day, a man came in the front door of the office, and asked if I wanted a shave. Though I was curious to see how this would work at my desk, I declined.
Today's visitors came in, and both looked a little strange. One appeared to be a Sikh with a large red turban. He stood a step behind another gentlemen with bloodshot eyes and western clothes highlighted with a huge Levi's brass belt buckle.
These two men came in the front door, each holding a notebook. They quickly started chanting (in Hindi? Kannada?) and walking around the office. Then, they started staring intensely in people's faces and chanting to them.
Apparently, both men were face readers who, naturally, used people's faces to tell their fortune. The women who sits next to me was told that a bald man would soon be coming to assist her with a financial problem.
The face readers walked around for about five minutes (unfortunately skipping me, the openly staring Westerner) and told some more fortunes. Then, they invited us to their temple down the road for some sort of a ceremony this evening. Then, they turned and left.
Just another day at the office.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Snake boat races
Here are a number of photos.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Women's role in Indian society
India in some ways is a quite advanced in terms of women's rights. There is currently a woman president, there was a woman prime minister in the early 1980s, and there have been women in high government jobs throughout the 60 years of Indian independence.
Yet at the same time, everyday interactions between men and women are far different than they are in the West. They are also changing incredibly rapidly and a subject of much tension and debate in India.
I will ignore here the complicated issue of fundamental Islamic women who wear burkhas and do not speak to men, though this group makes up a meaningful portion of society here.
Employment
One of the things that I noticed upon arriving here was that men often work in jobs that would typically be filled by women in many other countries. For example, men typically clean rooms at hotels, do laundry, and perform housekeeping tasks. This was strikingly apparent at my hotel in Jaipur. Everyone who worked at any job inside the hotel was a man. Yet outside, there was some construction being done. This was being done by female workers, who carried bricks on their heads from one area of the hotel to the other.
I have talked with a few people about this issue. They attribute this to a few factors. First, female literacy significant trails male literacy here. This makes it hard for women to do jobs like wait tables. Second, even in most lower-middle class families, most women do not work but instead manage the household and raise the children. Finally, social norms often do not allow women and men to interact entirely freely, as noted above.
Conversation
In my experience, men rarely will address women who are accompanied by other men directly in conversation. At meals with women, the waiter typically addresses them men to see what the women would like. Buses have Ladies Compartments, and there are male and female lines at most ticket booths, security lines, and entrance gates. When Brittany and I went to a travel agent to book our trip in Leh, I needed to walk down the street to get a copy of my passport made. The male travel agent was not comfortable being alone in his store with a female, so he stood outside while I was gone.
Family Life
India has always struggled with run-away population growth. I have written about China's approach to the problem. Being a democracy, it is impossible for India to enforce something like a one-child, one-family policy. But the government has recently announced a new plan to curb population growth. The state has committed to pay R5,000 (US$250) for a "second honeymoon" to any couple who does not have a child in their first two years of marriage. They will pay R7,500 for any couple who does not have a child in their first three years of marriage. Over 85% of married couples have a child in their first two years of marriage, so the government hopes it can reduce the birth rate by encouraging people to wait longer to have children.
There are also massive problems with parents aborting female children (especially in rural areas). While this is somewhat similar to the problem in rural China, the dowry factor here makes the problem even worse.
Customarily in India, single men and women live with their parents until they get married. After marrying, the woman moves in with the man in his parents' house. At marriage, the bride's family pays a large dowry to the family of the groom.
This dowry can be a huge financial commitment for the bride's family, one that takes years of savings. As such, having female children in India is thought of by some as a financial burden. And tragically, as a result the ratio of males/females in rural India is now around 57/43.
The Karantaka government has recently announced a new plan to combat this. They are literally paying families to have female children. Girl children will receive free health insurance until they are 18 and a scholarship to pay for elementary schooling. They also become the beneficiaries of a life insurance policy that the state takes out on their parents. Finally, the parents will receive a lump sum payment of R30,000 when their daughter turns 18.
Finally, I learned a lot from my new friend Madhu this weekend about his family, including how he met his wife. They had a marriage arranged by their parents, as is common in traditional Indian culture. But this process is more complicated than I realized. When Madhu decided that he was ready to get married, his parents sent the details of his life (name, exact date and time of birth, etc) to an astrologer. She then compared those details with those of the women she had in her database, then recommended some matches to Madhu's parents. Madhu's parents then interviewed the parents of the potential matches, and chose one. Madhu met her once and they talked for a few hours. They then got engaged, and were married a few months later. They have been happily married for the past 15 years. And, only 1% of Indian marriages ends in divorce, so maybe there is something to be said for the zodiac!
Friday, August 10, 2007
Weekend plans
Last weekend, I had a nice, relaxing weekend. I went out to a couple great restaurants with some MIT business-school guys I have become friends with. We played golf at the "#1 golf course in India". I made a clutch birdie to win two Kingfisher beers (don't worry though, I still had 4 or 5 three-putts). I walked around town some, saw a movie, and did some shopping. But I think I have seen what there is to see in Bangalore.
I decided yesterday that I am going to Kerala for the weekend. This region in the southwest corner of India is known for its "backwaters". This weekend they are having the annual Snake Boat Race and Festival on one of the lakes. My first question, of course, was, "Does a snake boat race involve actual snakes?" Luckily, the answer is no, much like Chinese Dragon Boats do not involve actual dragons. So I decided to go check it out.
I do not know much about the backwaters, Kerala, or snake boats, but I am sure by the end of the weekend I will.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Bollywood
And going to the movies here is quite an event.
In Jaipur, I went to one of the biggest and best theaters in the country. The lobby was amazingly decorated and an attraction in itself. Seats were purchased and assigned ahead of time. There were three tiers - much like going to a theater on Broadway. I bought box seats for R91 (~$2.25), and had a luxury box avoiding some of the chaos. Even though this theater only had one screen, it probably held 2,500 people. Here is a photo of the lobby.
The movie we saw was called Partner. Not uncommon for Bollywood films, it was based on an American film - in this cash Hitch. Same plot, similar jokes, even down to the fact that the main characters worked for a newspaper.
What was different though was the song and dance routines. Every 20 minutes or so, there was a huge song and dance routine, with elaborate costumes and choreography. These routines are quite common, and most movies feature around 8 major song-dance routines. Popular songs often show up on MTV India as videos, taken largely directly from the movies.
And the crowd gets into it. Whenever a star appears on screen, everyone yells. People sing and clap along with the songs. They scream and laugh and talk throughout and are as much of the entertainment as the movie itself.
This NYT article discusses Hollywood's latest efforts to capture some of the Indian cinema pie.
I also saw the Simpsons movie in Bangalore. Another very nice theater, though this was a 10 screen multiplex that could just as easily have been in suburban America (except for the assigned seats and talkative crowd). This theater was much smaller than Jaipur though, maybe since the movie was in english (ticket prices are also higher for english movies).
Finally, the story of Sanjay Dutt, arguably India's biggest movie star is quite amazing and quite current.
India just went through its equivalent of the OJ trial. Sanjay is one of Bollywood's biggest stars. He was arrested after the 1993 Mumbai bombings and charged (along with a few hundred others) with arms trafficking. He spent a year and a half in prison from 1994-95 but was then released on bond while awaiting trial.
His trial just concluded, 14 years later (Indian courts don't move fast). He was found guilty and (quite surprisingly to the public and the Bollywood community) sentenced to six years in prison. The three movies that he is in the middle of filming right now have all been shelved. The "Bollywood fraternity is mourning" (though public reaction seems mixed). But the Sanjay story is definitely all over the news. We know everything from Sanjay's prison sleeping schedule to what type food he is served to the cleanliness of the toilets in his cell block.
Nobody though seems to discuss whether he actually committed a crime. Maybe this was settled long ago, I am not sure. I have asked a few people about it but nobody seemed comfortable talking about it - I think (understandably) the bombings are still a sensitive topic. He is currently appealing to the Supreme Court but will remain in prison at least until it decides whether they will consider his case and allow him out on bail again. I will post further updates as new developments unfold.